Hatsu 2024 - Potential Ozeki Preview
Hatsu Basho Preview – Ozeki Watch
I think it’s great that sumo has a tournament every January. As a fan, it’s a nice way to kick off the New Year and have something to look forwards to even as the days remain darker and colder than you might prefer.
Drive to Survive gained Formula 1 millions of fans by showing that even as only one driver can win the race each week, there are still many colorful characters fighting for a variety of different things. This January 16th sumo returns with the Hatsu Basho (Hatsu being Japanese for first, I love how literal the language can be) and there too will be many more storylines beyond who takes home the Emperor’s Cup after day 15.
In this preview, I will look at wrestlers who might be on Ozeki runs, and those who could be on the precipice of being on one. My first piece to launch this site focused on what makes an Ozeki (and can be found here); it’s helpful reading for this, but I’ll also try to be clear and readable here for those who don’t have the time or inclination.
To structure this I’ll use the Banzuke (which can be found here for all ranks) and will make my way down the list. Based on my data the lowest rank that a wrestler has had in an Ozeki run, which consists of three tournaments, is Maegashira 4. So I’ll blurb at least briefly most of those wrestlers in the Joi and even mention a few other wrestlers that aren’t on a run yet, but are interesting and might be soon.
There are currently 3 Ozeki – Kirishima, Hoshoryu, and Takakeisho. Additionally, these Ozeki have been performing well, and as such, can be expected to continue as Ozeki for the reasonable future. However, this is not always the case. In Haru 2020, Takakeisho was the lone Ozeki and he went 7-8, and had even lost his Ozeki rank. This was only briefly in September 2019 and he regained his rank by going 12 and 3. At the time, it was a very realistic possibility that there could be no Ozeki in the near future. Asanoyama was promoted after going 11-4 at Haru 2020. He had a relatively weak 32 wins over his past 3 tournaments for an Ozeki run. I believe that insecurity in the Ozeki position influenced the Japan Sumo Association, who make the ultimate decision, into promoting him despite his relatively tepid credentials. This is a long-winded way of saying that we’re in the opposite of the Asanoyama situation and so as I judge the likelihood of these wrestlers being promoted, I think that they’ll have to demonstrate clearer credentials. I see that as having strong records and pushing for 33-34 wins over 3 tournaments and ideally at least a Jun-Yusho. Furthermore, only Sekiwake have ever been promoted to Ozeki. Now let’s begin.
Kotonowaka – Sekiwake
November 2023 11-4, Jun-Yusho
September 2023 9-6
20 wins total – all at Sekiwake
Here’s a stat for you: the last tournament that Kotonowaka had a losing record in was July 2022, and four of those losses were him sitting out for injury. The last tournament he’s had a losing record in with no Fusen (injury - meaning he sat out) losses was November of 2021.
Still, I have two conflicting thoughts when I think of his odds of making Ozeki. Part of me thinks if he repeated last tournament going 11-4 and got a Jun-Yusho, that would be enough for a promotion, given he had two runner-up finishes and would have been Sekiwake all 3 tournaments. But looking at the data, the last time a wrestler was promoted to Ozeki with 31 wins was in 1985. Onokuni was that wrestler and in 1985 went 12-3 to secure the promotion; I think that should be Kotonowaka’s aim. 13 wins puts him at 33 over 3 tournaments which I think would make him a lock.
Daieisho – Sekiwake
November 2023 10-5
September 2023 9-6
19 wins total – all at Sekiwake
A year ago, there was Kiribayama (now Kirishima), Hoshoryu, Daieisho, and Wakamotoharu all at Sekiwake and it felt like at least a couple would make Ozeki. Well Kirishima and Hoshoryu did, and Daieisho has come close, but not been able to get over the hump.
With 19 wins over the past 2 tournaments, he’d have to do something truly special to get Ozeki. But I don’t think he’ll go 14 -1 and instead he should hope to get 11 or 12 wins. With that, he’d be in a good place to go for Ozeki in Haru in March. 10 wins keeps him in the same place as right now and anything worse he’s back to 0.
Takayasu – Komosubi
November 2023 10-5, M3
September 2023 10-5, M7
20 wins total
I’m a big fan but he needs to clean up his Week 2’s in sumo. Still, with 10-5 the last tournament, if he does at least that well again and gets promoted to Sekiwake, I think he could compete for Ozeki in Haru. Since 1958, only Sekiwake have ever been promoted to Ozeki. So, unless Takayasu gets a Zensho Yusho 15-0, which also has never happened in modern Ozeki history, he will not be an Ozeki in March.
Ura – Komosubi
With 9-6 two tournaments ago and 8-7 last November, he’s in no danger of an Ozeki run. On the other hand, at 31 years old he’ll be making his Komosubi debut. Congratulations to one of the most entertaining wrestlers.
Wakamotoharu – M1
His 6-9 last tournament means this one will be about rebuilding. Unfortunately, it’s tough in the Joi to do that nowadays.
Atamifuji – M1
November 2023 11-4, M8
September 2023 11-4, M15
22 wins total
Sticking in the Makuuchi the second time around, Atamifuji looks like he really could be ready to take on the upper wrestlers. If he goes 10-5 at least he’ll be in a great position to compete for Ozeki in Haru. He looks like the real deal but having to fight the top-level wrestlers 15 days in a row has derailed many promising starts. I’m excited to see how it goes. For the optimists, he’ll need to reach at least Sekiwake if he wants to have a shot at Ozeki next tourney.
Midorifuji – M2
Bouncing in and out of the upper ranks, it’ll be interesting to see if he can stick around this time.
Abi – M2
After 6-9 last tournament, let’s see how his brand of sumo plays in this tournament.
Gonoyama – M3
I’ve liked what I’ve seen from him so far. At a career high rank, hopefully he can stick around.
Kinbozan – M6
Japanese and Mongolian wrestlers dominate the sport of sumo wrestling, so whenever someone from a country that is less traditionally associated with sumo, I usually root for them. The Kazakh has proven he can stick in the Makuuchi, so let’s see if he’s able to better handle the upper ranks in the future.
Onosato – M15, Hakuoho Makushita 5
I’m no sumo prospect expert, but I know enough to know Onosato and Hakuoho are the real blue chippers. Hakuoho might finally be back wrestling this tournament all the way down in Makushita but taking the time to fully heal is more important for now, so hopefully they do what’s right. Onosato on the other hand makes his Makuuchi debut at Maegashira 15 this tournament. He’s won 24 of his last 30 sumo matches and that includes making his Juryo debut. Typically Juryo slows hot prospects down, so let’s see if he’s able pull that same trick off immediately adjusting to Makuuchi. I can’t wait to watch all his matches.
Other Upcoming Pieces
What makes a Yokozuna
A look at the most impressive tournament by Ozeki as a group ever
It featured 3 future Yokozuna and the 4 of them averaged 13 wins and won the Yusho and Jun-Yusho
A deep dive into Tochinoshin’s Ozeki run and the 3 other men who tied him with the 37 wins over 3 tournaments to reach Ozeki
Longer term: constructing an ELO ranking of wrestlers in the Makuuchi
Preliminary coding work is started and it’s looking viable so it’s just a matter of putting my nose to the grindstone
https://www.stablemasters.ca/ actually has this already and it looks great. Hopefully I can match some of the great stuff there
Longer term: my dataset is currently just Ozeki and Yokozuna so I’m looking to further refine the existing code and pull the full Makuuchi ranks and possibly Juryo too to look at development paths for wrestlers
Longer term: Sumo Hall of Fame project
It’s highly preliminary, but the idea is to try and create a sumo Hall of Fame not unlike other sports have. This will be data driven to see if other sports’ HoFs can give parameters for how many HoF wrestlers we’d expect in every tournament, criteria, etc.
Longer term: looking at volatility of win totals for wrestlers
Potentially related: looking into injuries
If you have any other ideas, feel free to message me on any of my channels and I’d be happy to credit if it does become an article