What Makes a Yokozuna
Looking through modern sumo history (1958-Present) and appreciating greatness
Hopefully you enjoyed the first couple articles for Ozeki Analytics. We covered last week what it takes to reach Ozeki; I think that was fun, but Ozeki were our vegetables, now it’s time for our dessert (Yokozuna). These are the guys that have indelibly left their marks on sumo and reached the top. Understandably, there are fewer of these men and as a result fewer data to work with. Still, I found some interesting things looking at the historic record.
I went to Wikipedia again for the standards for Yokozuna promotion. I would say it’s worth reading because unlike the Ozeki, this doesn’t exactly line up with what I thought going in. They are as follows:
“The de facto standard is to win two consecutive championships as ōzeki or an equivalent performance. In the case where the "equivalent performance" criterion is used the wrestler's record over the previous three tournaments is taken into account with an expectation of at least one tournament victory and one runner-up performances, with none of the three records falling below twelve wins. Thus a consistent high level of performance is required. Winning two tournaments with a poor performance between them is not usually sufficient. Also achieving runner-up performance in three consecutive tournaments is not sufficient, with example being Ozeki Kisenosato in 2013 and 2016. The rules are not set in stone and hence in reaching their conclusion the Yokozuna Deliberation Council and Sumo Association can interpret the criteria more leniently or strictly and also take into account other factors, such as total number of tournament victories, the quality of the wins and whether the losses show any serious vulnerabilities.”
So the two consecutive championships as Ozeki or “equivalent performance” I’m familiar with. What tripped me up was the subsequent talk of three tournaments (bolded for emphasis). This is worth examining. Other than that? “The rules are not set in stone” indeed.
To test this, I looked at all the sumo wrestlers who reached the Yokozuna rank. Among those wrestlers, I looked at their average number of wins in each tournament and indexed that relative to when they became an Yokozuna. So, if a wrestler reached Yokozuna and wrestled at that rank in September 2021, their first tournament would be classified as their 0th tournament at the rank (apologies for using programming convention). So, continuing the example, the -1 tournament for that wrestler is July 2021, -2 is May 2021, -3 is March 2021 and so on.
I grabbed the data for all sumo wrestlers who reached Yokozuna rank in the modern era (1958-Present) and then charted how many wins they have on average in each tournament relative to when they debuted at Yokozuna.
Looking at the chart, the extraordinary achievement required to reach Yokozuna immediately stands out. In November 2023, only one wrestler in the Makuuchi reached 12 or 13 wins (hats off to Ozeki Kirishima). Only 2 men in Juryo reached 12 wins despite the lesser competition; no surprises it was a top prospect and another prospect with extensive Makuuchi experience (Onosato and Kotoshoho respectively). 12 wins is impressive, and the men who reach Yokozuna average nearly a full win better than that in their penultimate Ozeki tournament, and then step up almost another full win to reach Yokozuna in their final Ozeki tournament, all while facing the best wrestlers.
I really do think that it’s worth emphasizing how difficult it is to get 12 wins, much less more than 12. In September 2023, no one reached 12 wins in the top division. In July two wrestlers achieved 12 wins and that was sufficient for the Yusho. To sum up: out of a half year of Makuuchi tournaments in 2023, only 3 times did a wrestler reach 12 or more wins. Finally going back to May, Yokozuna Terunofuji reached 14 wins. That was a weak run of winning Yusho records (will look to do a breakdown of “strong” vs “weak” tournament wins in the future) but it does illustrate that despite there being 42 wrestlers each tournament, reaching 12 wins in a tournament is still no mean feat.
As a quick note, this (and the first Ozeki post) are more focused on the positive cases. In other words, I’m looking at times wrestlers did make Yokozuna. In the future I have some pieces planned to look at runs that didn’t quite reach the Yokozuna (or Ozeki) standards.
Another final note before I proceed to teasing out some stats: the line wasn’t exactly clean for the cutoff so this list actually will include some Yokozuna pre-1958; that being the usual cut-off I use for “modern” sumo. So there are 32 Yokozuna in total included in my stats and starting from Kagamisato to present (Terunofuji). They can be found at Wikipedia . Given the historical record only has 73 Yokozuna, and many of them date back centuries ago with hazy-at-best records, we’re actually looking at a decent amount of top-level wrestlers. Let’s dig in!
Earlier I pointed out the inclusion of 3 tournament records for Yokozuna inclusion; the text is below and I looked into how wrestlers did 3 tournaments prior to their Ozeki debut
“The de facto standard is to win two consecutive championships as ōzeki or an equivalent performance. In the case where the "equivalent performance" criterion is used the wrestler's record over the previous three tournaments is taken into account with an expectation of at least one tournament victory and one runner-up performances…”
Looking at all 32 Yokozuna in the dataset, not a single Ozeki had a losing record in the 3 tournaments leading to their Yokozuna debut
The above stated standards has only 2 consecutive championships as an Ozeki are required. Just as with Ozeki I was surprised nobody had a perfect 15-0 in their Ozeki run, here I’m surprised nobody had a losing record in their 3 tournament Yokozuna run. I just imagined that somehow a wrestler would have come back from an injury well rested and gone on a rope run, but not so. That’s why it’s good to dig into the data – often the truth and your presumptions can differ.
You do not have to be Ozeki for all 3 tournaments of a Yokozuna run
Yokozuna Terunofuji was actually at Sekiwake three tournaments prior to his Yokozuna promotion, but given his 12-3 Yusho and 14-1 Jun-Yusho in the next tournaments, his promotion is understandable
He is the only example of this though
From here on, when I refer to tournaments in the plural, I only am looking at the 2 tournaments leading up to Yokozuna debut
The Yusho requirement is real…but I also think that they’re pretty generous at treating a Jun-Yusho as a Yusho equivalent
In the first tournament of a Yokozuna run
3 men failed to register a Jun-Yusho or Yusho (see lower for mor info)
13 won a Jun-Yusho
16 won the Yusho outright
Proportions are 9%, 41% and 50% respectively
In the second tournament of a Yokozuna run
1 man, Tochinoumi, had no Jun-Yusho or Yusho in his final tournament at Ozeki
10 men won a Jun-Yusho
21 men won the Yusho outright
Proportions are 3%, 31% and 66% respectively
Yoshibayama, Kashiwado, Tamanoumi and Tochinoumi all were blanked on prizes during a tournament of their Yokozuna run
Tochinoumi actually went 13-2 his final Ozeki tournament, but Taiho went Zensho Yusho, so he still got promoted to Yokozuna
It was well deserved too as he’d gone 14-1 the prior tournament to win the Yusho
Tamanoumi went 10-5 with no prizes in one of his two Yokozuna tournaments but still got promoted
It was a bit of special circumstances as he’d been snubbed despite going 12-3 and 13-2 with a Yusho + Jun-Yusho before under special circumstances.
He followed that up with a 13-2 Jun-Yusho
Those 23 wins are tied with Kashiwado for the lowest two tournament total on a Yokozuna run
Every Yokozuna run since 1987 has had at least 26 wins
Looking at the wins required to reach Yokozuna and the tournament requirements, it becomes a bit chicken and egg on how many wins are required vs how many wins a wrestler will naturally get en route to two Yusho equivalents in a row
Hokutoumi and Onokuni in 1987 were both promoted to Yokozuna with only 25 wins in 2 tournaments and both having only won a Jun-Yusho in their final Yokozuna run tournament
The notorious Futahaguro actually did reach 26 wins over his two tournament Yokozuna run, including a 14-1 Jun-Yusho
Unfortunately, he ran against Chiyonofuji in the midst of one of the greatest runs of sumo wrestling ever and ended up with no Yushos – the only Yokozuna without a Yusho in the top division
In the 64 Yokozuna Run tournaments in the sample size, 7 featured a Zensho Yusho (15-0)
That means just over 1 in 10 tournaments on Yokozuna runs feature a perfect record
Congratulations to Harumafuji and Takanohana for going Zensho in both of their Yokozuna run tournaments
Congrats Hakuho, Wajima, and Yoshibayama for getting the other Yokozuna-run Zensho Yushos
The above chart is based on their age at the final tournament of the Yokozuna run (I justify this as the accomplishment is achieved and decided at the tournament end, rather than at the debut in the next Basho)
Kitanoumi and Taiho are the two youngest, and Hakuho, Takanohana, and Asashoryu just missed reaching Yokozuna before their 22nd birthday. I do not know if I’ll ever fully appreciate that level of excellence so young.
Conversely, the elderly warriors who reached Yokozuna at or after 30 starting from oldest are Yoshibayama, Kotozakura, Mienoumi, Takanosato, Kisenosato, and Asahifuji
The average age is 26.8 and the median age is 27.1
So looking back at some of these statistics, it seems there are fewer conclusions to be drawn on “rules” vs looking at Ozeki. In many ways this makes a great deal of sense; our sample size is half, and these men are inherently supposed to be much more elite and unique. Well, having 26 wins over two tournaments at the top of the Banzuke is about as elite and unique as it gets.
I do want to also dive deeper into these circumstances to explore beyond what the data might tell us. For instance, when we saw how Tamanoumi had been previously snubbed for Yokozuna, his promotion on weaker credentials made sense. Similarly, Futahaguro was promoted to Yokozuna despite never winning a Yusho (in fact because there were too many Ozeki!). There are often lots of extenuating circumstances, so in many ways this is the beginning rather than the end of this investigation.
To close this, my takeaway is how much more difficult it is to reach Yokozuna than I had assumed. I knew about the two Yusho equivalents, but seeing just the number of wins required that entails over 60 years of history has really opened my eyes up and made me appreciate so much more the few men able to reach this sporting zenith. Congratulations to the Yokozuna, you truly have made one of the greatest accomplishments in sports.
Future Pieces
Sumo Development
How many tournaments does it take to reach Yokozuna from Ozeki?
How many tournaments to reach Ozeki from Makuuchi debut?
There’s way more to be done; however the above data I currently have reasonable access to
A look at the most impressive tournament by Ozeki as a group ever
Featuring 3 future Yokozuna, the 4 of them averaged 13 wins and won the Yusho and Jun-Yusho
Tournament winner statistics
How many wins is a “weak” tournament win vs a “strong” one
A deep dive into Tochinoshin’s Ozeki run and the 3 other men who tied him with the 37 wins over 3 tournaments to reach Ozeki
Longer term: constructing an ELO ranking of wrestlers in the Makuuchi
Preliminary coding work is started and it’s looking viable so it’s just a matter of putting my nose to the grindstone
https://www.stablemasters.ca/ actually has this already and it looks great. Hopefully I can match some of the great stuff there
Longer term: my dataset is currently just Ozeki and Yokozuna so I’m looking to further refine the existing code and pull the full Makuuchi ranks and possibly Juryo too to look at development paths for wrestlers
Longer term: looking at volatility of win totals for wrestlers
Potentially related: looking into injuries
If you have any other ideas, feel free to message me on any of my channels and I’d be happy to credit if it does become an article