Aki Basho '24 Potential Ozeki and Yokozuna Preview + Prospects
A preview of the September 2024 tournament
After Terunofuji’s 10th top division Yusho in the July Basho, it’s been almost two months and is time for the next round of Ozeki and Yokozuna previews. I will discuss the potential Yokozuna despite none of our Ozeki being on a rope run after last tournament. In fact, I might do a bit more of a broader piece where I look at who will most likely be the next Yokozuna - current Ozeki or not - after this next tournament when we have clarity on if Takakeisho will regain his place.
That’s a nice transition to point out we do have real live Ozeki runs and implications this tournament. So let’s talk about the men who hope to be one step closer to Yokozuna when we have our final tournament of 2024 in November and also a few prospects.
Yokozuna Preview
If you’re unfamiliar with how Yokozuna promotions work, there’s a couple articles on it under the Yokozuna section here, but the quick and dirty is that 26 wins over two tournaments from Ozeki is bare minimum. Furthermore, winning the Yusho in the second tournament is also fairly important.
This time around there is no Ozeki with 11 wins, so even if Kotozakura went Zensho Yusho and won all 15 matches, he almost certainly does not get promoted. Furthermore, with Terunofuji having won the previous Basho, I imagine there’s less pressure on him to retire if he sits a few of the upcoming Basho out. In other words, there’s no urgency for a new Yokozuna right now. Personally, I am happy with that, as I want our next Yokozuna to fully earn and deserve that title as Terunofuji did himself. That said, let’s look at our two Ozeki for this tournament.
Kotozakura Ozeki 1 East - 10-5 in Nagoya
I’m spoiling my piece on who I think will be next Yokozuna a bit here, but I think Kotozakura is a top tier contender for that. I’ve been watching more vintage sumo matches lately, and while I don’t think Kotozakura is as dominant as those old Yokozuna, I think he does show flashes of it. There’s nobody in Sumo wrestling he cannot beat1, and other than Terunofuji, I think I would bet on Kotozakura in a single match over any other wrestler. However, the flip side is that despite having great size, good thrusting, and being no slouch on the Mawashi, it seems he doesn’t put it all together for 15 days. Perhaps consistency is the only weakness in his incredibly well rounded game.
In January during the Hatsu Basho Kotozakura2 won 13 matches and a Jun-Yusho. That is huge for him as he did it from the Joi en route to being promoted to Ozeki; all he needs to do is duplicate (or best) that performance twice in a row and he’ll hit Yokozuna. I’m very excited to see if and when he does that.
Hoshoryu Ozeki 1 West - 9-4-2 (2 being Injury Losses) in Nagoya
I’ll level with you all: I do not know what to make of Hoshoryu. I’ll be a little less diplomatic: Hoshoryu has never won more than 12 wins in a single tournament. 26 divided by 2 is 13. In other words, you need to win 13 or more matches in a tournament twice in a row to reach Yokozuna.
In scouting for various sports - be it football, soccer, basketball, etc. - there is one school of talent evaluation that goes something like this, “if I have seen a player do something once, it means they can do it again (potentially) and so I should assume they have that skill, or potentially have that skill going forwards.” A concrete example is if you saw a 7 footer who never shoots 3 point shots in game just hitting shot after shot from behind the arc in warm-ups. Maybe it’s not part of his game yet but it could be.
I’m skeptical of Hoshoryu as a Yokozuna because I haven’t seen a full tournament with him getting 13 wins or more. To go a bit deeper, I think he’s incredibly skilled, but unlike Kotozakura he just doesn’t have the same level of dominance at times, and also doesn’t have the same kind of size to rely on. He’s a little too hot and cold for me to put his lack of consistency a different way. He got to Ozeki and is still just a few months older than 25 so time is on his side, but hopefully I see more from him going forwards if he’s to reach the highest rank.
Ozeki Preview
If you’re unfamiliar with how Ozeki promotions work, there’s a couple articles on it under the Ozeki section here, but the quick and dirty on this is that 33 wins over three tournaments. Furthermore, the final tournament of that run must be from Sekiwake - today that actually is semi-relevant.
Luckily, we actually do have some guys here that could conceivably joining the Ozeki ranks today. The obvious one is Takakeisho from Sekiwake 2 West - if he wins 10 or more matches he automatically regains his Ozeki position. As for the others, read on to see where they are in their respective potential Ozeki runs.
Abi Sekiwake 1E - 8-7 in Nagoya
Abi is at this point a Joi stalwart. He’s been in the upper Maegashira if not the Sanyaku (Komosubi and above) since January of 2023, and has been fairly comfortable there with only two Makekoshi during that time. After going 8-7 in Nagoya, he’s not in Ozeki contention, but he’s in the right spot to do such a thing.
Onosato Sekiwake 1W - 12-3 K1W May ‘24, 9-6 S1W in Nagoya
21 wins over past two tournaments
Barring injuries, Onosato will be an Ozeki sooner or later. The Aki Basho could be the coronation ceremony, but he does have to win 12 (or more matches). I don’t have too much to add other than it’s been a real pleasure watching his rise in Sumo, and hopefully he continues delivering excellent matches for a long time to come.
Kirishima Sekiwake 2E - 8-7 in Nagoya
Unfortunately, Kirishima couldn’t muster the 10 wins necessary to regain his Ozeki rank. As a result, if he’s to return to Ozeki he’ll need to do it the hard way again. We’ve seen he can do it; it’s just a matter of his health and if he can get back to the kind of Sumo he delivered throughout 2023 and in the Hatsu Basho this year. In fact, unlike Hoshoryu (or Onosato as of yet) he has hit the 13 wins in a tournament mark. He’s shown a level of consistency and dominance in a tournament few men have reached, and is still 28. From our research we know that’s still right around when wrestlers peak, so hopefully he can begin his climb back towards the top with a good tournament this time around.
Takakeisho Sekiwake 2W - Demoted from Ozeki - needs 10 wins to have Ozeki position restored
The above says it all: 10 wins and he gets Ozeki back. We’ve seen him do it before, so don’t count him out yet. On the other hand, if he loses his Ozeki position, I would not be surprised to see him retire. Maybe I’ll do a piece on Ozeki retirements if that happens. Still, I’m rooting for him because I’m a fan and I think he’s already cemented his status as a historically great Ozeki. Hopefully this isn’t his final chapter.
Daieisho Komosubi 1E - 8-7 in Nagoya
I say it every two months: Daieisho is a guy that could have been, and still could be an Ozeki; he’s just a bit unlucky that he’s hit his peak around the same time as a bunch of other guys with the talent to be Ozeki. Despite the Joi’s talent level really increasing lately, Daieisho has only had one Makekoshi since November of 2022. Like some other guys, he just needs a little luck in terms of sequencing and he remains as live a threat to make Ozeki as a lot of the guys he finds himself around in the Joi.
Hiradoumi Komosubi 1W - 10-5 in Nagoya
Hiradoumi is a little hard done by the current lineup of Sekiwake and Komosubi and demoted Ozeki. He likely would have been a Sekiwake after going 10-5 from Komosubi if the Banzuke was less top heavy3. However, we don’t live in that world, and you have to be a Sekiwake for the final tournament of an Ozeki run, so I consider him to be on the second tournament of a potential Ozeki run. However, he did have 9 wins from Maegashira 2 in the May tournament, giving him 19 wins, and 14 would put him at the magic 33 wins over 3 tournaments. I’m just raising this to show how he’s a bit unlucky with the Banzuke composition.
Hiradoumi has seemingly found a new gear particularly since March when he’s gone 9-6 or better 3 tournaments in a row from the Joi or thereabouts. Given his strongest tournament yet came last time around, and he’s still 24 and a handful of months, it’s time for myself to start taking him more seriously as a top tier prospect. I will be watching him with particular interest this time around to get a better idea of the style and skill of this potential Ozeki.
Prospects + New Promotees
I broke down the two new promotees up top, and then flagged some other interesting prospects worth keeping an eye on in my opinion. All of them are guys that I think could potentially rise much higher and likely sooner than later or in Shishi’s case, is Ukrainian and likely makes his Makuuchi debut soon.
Onokatsu Maegashira 14W
The Mongolian makes his top division debut just under a year after his Makushita Tsukedashi debut at Ms15TD. After going 9-6 from Juryo 1, he’s a guy that might be able to do well against the bottom of the Maegashira and maybe even find himself in contention going in to week 2. He’s another college wrestler and is 24 years old. Good size and don’t be surprised if he can stick in the Makuuchi his first time around.
Shirokuma Maegashira 16E
If you leave this paragraph with nothing else, Shirokuma translates literally as White Bear, or Polar Bear. Besides that, Shirokuma fits the new type of top prospect we’ve been seeing lately: he attended college, debuted at ~22 and immediately hit the ground running making his way from Jonokuchi to Juryo in a little over a year. His ascent through Juryo took a bit longer, but by going 12-3 and winning a Yusho from Juryo 8 he now makes his top division debut. To be honest, looking at his performance higher up in the Juryo I do wonder if he’ll find himself a bit overmatched. Still, he’s just 25 and has time on his side to become a Makuuchi stalwart, if not more.
Shishi Juryo 2W
The Ukrainian wrestler is one to watch as he’s just one solid tournament (9-6 almost surely guarantees a promotion, perhaps 8-7 with a favorable Banzuke) from being promoted. Wanted to flag him for any fellow fans of seeing additional nationalities besides Mongolian and Japanese succeed.
Wakaikari Makushita 2W
At just 19 years old, Wakaikari is well ahead of schedule and might be able to make Juryo with one more solid performance before the end of his second full year of professional Sumo wrestling. He’s slighter and a bit tricky. Keep this name in mind, because he’s been grinding his way through Makushita and sooner or later likely becomes relevant to more than just the hardcore fans.
Aonishiki Makushita 4W
The other Ukrainian and undoubtedly the better prospect, he’s lost just 3 times in his career this far. He hasn’t hit any adversity he can’t overcome yet, so let’s see if the upper Makushita is where he finally gets truly tested. 5 wins could be enough to get him to Juryo, and duplicating his 6 win performances from the past 3 tournaments more or less guarantees it.
Inami Makushita 32W
Another college wrestler on a meteoric rise. He has good size, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep up his dominance. If he does do really well in mid Makushita (5+ wins) then I will adjust my view of his potential even higher.
Tokitenran Makushita 33E
Most of the same for Inami above can be repeated here. The big differences are that he is actually a smaller guy at 172cm (~68 inches, or 5’8) and 120kg (~265 pounds) and is a little over a year younger (turns 23 in November).
Seihakuho Sandanme 28W
With this name, being Mongolian, 1 loss in his first 2 Banzuke, terrific size and being in the Miyagino+Isegahama Beya (where Hakuho coaches4) how could I not include him? Well, he’s 24 years old (but just as of August) and only in the Sandanme, but it’s hard not to be romantic about him. Hopefully he goes 6-1 or 7-0 so we can see him in Makushita because I’m guessing it won’t be the Sandanme where he gets tested for the first time.
Shimizuumi Jonidan 5W
Another college wrestler, Shimizuumi debuted in Jonokuchi and had a spotless record in July. If he’s legitimate, then the only question is 6 or 7 wins, and how high up the Sandanme he ends up in November.
Here were some guys that caught my eyes. I tried to hit most divisions and shout out some guys that can hopefully do well and keep rocketing up the Banzuke. Can’t wait to see how Aki goes and continue analyzing these trends and wrestlers. Thanks for reading!
He actually beat Terunofuji the first time in the Nagoya Basho
then Kotonowaka
In fact, 10 wins is usually enough to open a new Sekiwake slot, but we also know that demoted Ozeki occupy the lowest Sekiwake slot, so it was a bit crowded there this time around
Apologies if anything on this Heya info is incorrect - it’s a very strange situation and I’m trying my best here