Aki Basho '25 Potential Yokozuna, Potential Ozeki, and Interesting Prospects

Happy September Aki Basho everyone! It’s been a hot minute since I’ve done one of these and I’ll cover that absence in a bit - but the gist of these pieces is to act as a preview piece for the upcoming Basho. In particular, I have written about what it takes to reach Yokozuna and Ozeki (links to those criteria and past promotions embedded in each) and honed in on the numbers behind them. Furthermore, I will also look at interesting prospects. I’ve made some progress on criteria for determining the top prospects in sumo, but in this case it’s less a science and more an art and “who caught my eye”. So this is about using that built up expertise to see who might get promoted and potential future top wrestlers.

Really quickly the criteria for reaching Yokozuna is generally 26 wins over two consecutive tournaments and at least 1 Yusho (tournament win). For Ozeki it’s simply winning 33 matches over three consecutive tournaments while being towards the top of the Banzuke (the ranking of wrestlers from top to bottom). As for prospects, things have gotten weird particularly the past few years as we’re seeing a much higher percentage of wrestlers having wrestled in college whereas they previously they usually entered straight out of high school, if not sooner. We’ve even done a piece on there being more college-background rikishi (wrestlers) and the numbers confirmed this.

I embedded videos on some of the wrestlers so if you see a link over a wrestler’s name and it has a link then please click it and enjoy the highlights.

Finally for the intro, I want to apologize for my work being more inconsistent this year. I can’t announce why that has been the case yet, but I believe there should be a big announcement (or two) that will show the exciting work I’ve been focused on in the absence of sumo writing. One of those announcements in particular readers of this blog will surely be pleased with and I anticipate to have that announcement in the next few months. I hope that when that news drops it makes some amends for my absence this year and that the passion behind that project shines through.

Real Time Update on Yokozuna and Ozeki Promotion Criteria (Skippable)

When doing research projects for sumo, I’ll often use data from the beginning of 1988 to present. I consider that the “modern era” of sumo because that marks when former Yokozuna Futahaguro was notoriously forced into retirement. We’re skipping that story for now, but the fallout from it resulted in greater scrutiny for promotions to Yokozuna.

The point is - and our research has shown this - there isn’t a strict criteria per se for these promotions be it Yokozuna or Ozeki. Rather there are general guidelines and various circumstances will affect how closely they are followed. When I look at the Banzuke right now, I believe that will be to the detriment of any future would-be Yokozuna. Yokozuna is for life, and while Onosato has looked good in his first tournament at the pinnacle of sumo, Hoshoryu has looked decidedly less superior. Furthermore, he’s still just 26 while Onosato is 25. With all that in mind, I think it will lead to stricter criteria for promotion. As a result, look for them to hew closer to the 26 wins minimum over two tournaments. Additionally part of the promotion guidelines say over those two tournaments the wrestler should have the Yusho equivalent. Sometimes that’s loosely interpreted as a Jun-Yusho (runner up) or even a strong showing that resulted in no Yusho or Jun-Yusho. I also think that will be adhered to more closely.

As for the Ozeki we actually find ourselves in the exact opposite situation. The Banzuke is unbalanced because Kotozakura is our only current Ozeki and just look at this screenshot from sumoDB:

It doesn’t look clean with Kotozakura all by his lonely! I’m being a bit cheeky, but the balancing of the Banzuke genuinely is a consideration. That means until that second Ozeki slot gets filled, you might actually be able to get away with 32 or maybe even 31 wins securing promotion to Ozeki. The Ozeki promotion also considers the ranks at which you won all those matches. The Georgian legend Tochinoshin had part of his Ozeki run come from Maegashira 3 (he won that tournament) and I think that’s about as low as part of the run can come from. That’s unfortunate news for Aonishiki who won 11 at Maegashira 9. I’m not including that in his current run and I feel fairly confident because he’s not even a Sekiwake and no modern Ozeki has been promoted from any rank other than Sekiwake.

Again, these are guidelines rather than strict rules, but my research gives me good confidence that any deviations from the above should be a decent surprise.

Potential Yokozuna Preview

Kotozakura O1E - 8-7 Last Tournament

Having won 8 matches in July, even a Zensho Yusho - 15 wins, no losses - would be insufficient for promotion to Yokozuna. For things to go well and him to be on track to go up even higher he’ll need 13 wins which is more or less saying he’ll have to be competing for the championship in the final days. There’s honestly not too much to say about Kotozakura. He finds himself in a similar position to Hoshoryu before his rope run to the top; firmly ensconced at the Ozeki position and just needing to put it together two tournaments in a row. Why Kotozakura seems to have trouble finding that consistency despite his terrific stature and solid all around game is the million dollar question. As I was writing this I couldn’t help but think of the “Potential Man” meme and so I made a version for Kotozakura. It’s meant to be more of a joke so don’t take it too seriously and hopefully in a year or two we can look back with a smile at how he finally put things together.

Potential Ozeki Preview

Here’s where there’s more intrigue over potential promotions.

Wakatakakage Sekiwake 1 East - Last Tournament: 10-5, Two Tournaments Ago: 12-3 (Two Tournament Total: 22 Wins)

In 2022 Wakatakakage nearly ended up an Ozeki. He began the year 9-6, 12-3, 9-6 leaving him at 31 wins and a Yusho. Unfortunately injuries sunk him back down to Makushita and now recovered he has an even better shot. As stated above, with only one Ozeki, I think he could probably get promoted with 10 wins, but 11 wins all but guarantees it. Best of luck to him and glad that wrestlers recovering from injuries and reaching the top again (if not new heights) is becoming more common.

Kirishima Sekiwake 1 West - Last Tournament: 8-7, Two Tournaments Ago: 11-4 (Two Tournament Total: 19 Wins)

Unfortunately the only scenario in which he’s viable to return to Ozeki involve him winning the tournament overall which seems rather unlikely. Still, he seems to be back closer to his form that got him to Ozeki rather than got him demoted. He still is in the prime age for sumo albeit on the back half of it and I’ll be rooting for him. 14 wins is a probable lock and 13 wins might suffice if Wakatakakage doesn’t get the job done.

Takayasu Komosubi 1 East - Last Tournament: 10-5, Two Tournaments Ago: 6-9

Takayasu has the more enviable position of the former Ozeki. 10 wins is a solid base for a run and if he can secure double digit wins again he’ll be in a strong spot to get the job done in November. It’s probably not super likely, but I also wouldn’t have guessed he’d be here after some of his tournaments over the past couple years.

Aonishiki Komosubi 1 West - Last Tournament: 11-4, Two Tournaments Ago: 11-4 from Maegashira 9

I mentioned that the first 11-4 is from Maegashira 9 because they won’t count that for an Ozeki run. That and the fact that he’s still just a Komosubi means that he will not get promoted unless they break a lot of rules and traditions. The big thing for him is doing well enough to get a Sekiwake slot in November and with that and a solid win total he could be an Ozeki come 2026.

Tamawashi Maegashira 1 East - Last Tournament: 11-4

Writing this about sumo’s Ironman who is in his 40’s is just incredible. One of these days I should do a “Best Run By Older Rikishi” because Tamawashi deserves his flowers for this. I hope he keeps at it, and even though I don’t expect this to realistically result in him reaching Ozeki, I’m always open to surprises and by still being in the Makuuchi at this age he’s shown he’s full of them.

Interesting Prospects (Skippable Intro)

When thinking about prospects, one of the biggest questions is: how quickly should you update your thoughts on the wrestlers? Let me explain; Aonishiki has not been a professional sumo wrestler very long. Furthermore, he started all the way at the bottom of the Banzuke. He went 7-0 and 6-1 from Jonokuchi to Jonidan to Sandanme to Makushita before finally reaching Juryo 6 tournaments into his career. He then had 22 wins over two tournaments to reach Makuuchi and is in the Sanyaku after just 3 tournaments in the top division. Given he is still just 21 years old, I think it can be said he’s at least a prospect for Ozeki if not Yokozuna.

But when should we have reached that conclusion he’ll be one of the top 3-5 wrestlers on the planet? When should we have concluded he’s a future Makuuchi wrestler? I don’t have an answer here, but I would like to point out that sumo Greatest of All Time, Hakuho actually had a 3-4 Makekoshi in his first tournament in Jonokuchi. He had another in Sandanme. With wrestlers still developing and at younger ages and with fewer matches below Juryo (7 vs 15 for top 2 divisions) there are inherent difficulties.

My approach is to find guys that are young for their division and are coming off a good tournament. If they do well again then (in my mind) it confirms that prospect status, but if they don’t do well, then they’re young enough that we shouldn’t have to ask any larger questions over their potential. That’s where my approach comes from here.

Fukuzaki Maaru Makuushita 6 - Age: 18

A beneficiary of starting in Makushita, he’s proven he belongs there. Last tournament he went 5-2 from Makushita 15 proving to me he has decent odds of ending up in Juryo next tournament. Making Sekitori (top 2 divisions) before your 19th birthday would be incredibly impressive.

Kobayashi Arashi Makuushita 25 - Age: 21

Coming off winning the Sandanme Yusho this marks a career high and Makushita debut. This comes off an extended injury layoff where he looks much stronger than before at least record-wise. This pick is more speculative than others. I just want to see how he’ll do facing competition unlike any he’s faced before.

Tenrosei Kenichi Makuushita 57 - Age: 18, Shusshin: Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar

From the same stable as Abi, the Mongolian has encountered little resistance thus far in his young career. Makushita is where I think you can really see the true talents separate themselves so like Kobayashi I think we’ll learn a lot based on how they fare in their first time facing this talent level.

Hikarumusashi Eru Sandanme 51 - Age: 19, Shusshin: USA, Hawaii

As an American it warms my heart seeing a compatriot in pro sumo. Even better, I had my concerns that he went 4-3 in Jonidan, but his second go around and from higher in Jonidan he went 6-1. He’s still young, and I believe he’s newer to sumo so as long as he keeps at it, and keeps making his way up the Banzuke he should have a bright future. At least this is what I tell myself hoping he can usher in a new age of American rikishi. The name might sound familiar because

Yamanobe Chikara Jonidan 60 - Age: 15(!)

The way to end up here is to be young for the division you’re in. Well 15 years old will do it! He went 5-2 in Jonokuchi last time around so there is some merit here, but this is as much about having a name filed away because wouldn’t it be fun if we see him in Makuuchi ~5 years from now?