Kyushu Basho '24 Potential Ozeki and Yokozuna Preview
It’s that time of the sumo cycle again. We have an upcoming Basho, and we have a new Ozeki. Will we have more Ozeki and Yokozuna in January ‘25? Keep reading to find out!
Seriously though, I think we’re in a more stable era for our Ozeki going forwards. I might have said and though that earlier this year, but all 3 men have clean slates for now (Onosato is a fresh promotee, and Kotozakura and Hoshoryu both had 8 wins last time around) so we should have the same set January and likely February too.
As for Yokozuna, this tournament would be the first in any rope run for any of the current Ozeki. Still, I think they’re interesting to talk about and to see if my piece linked here on who I think will be next Yokozuna ends up being right.
Potential Yokozuna Preview
The big question is if Onosato can continue his record breaking ways and make it to Yokozuna in only 2 tournaments at Ozeki - which would be the minimum tournaments required and the record for quickest ascension to Yokozuna (both tournament wise, and from Ozeki, I believe).
If he does want to make Yokozuna, he needs to keep the magic 26 wins in two tournaments in mind. That said, winning the Yusho on the first tournament of a Yokozuna run is less important than the second tournament.
26 wins + Yusho on second tournament is the quick and dirty version, but we have some more analysis under the Yokozuna section on the Sumo Knowledge Primer here too. Let’s look at the men now.
Kotozakura - O1E
Sometimes when you’re doing sports analysis you can uncover some statistic or tendency and you feel really smart and can cheer for your guys to press the ball better, or run this play or defend that player tighter or whatever. Other times you’re doing sports analysis and the results seem comically simple: you just need to play better.
Unfortunately, the advice for Kotozakura is of the latter type. He has every skill and physical asset you could want, but he just needs to be more consistent. Easier said than done and “win more” sounds almost patronizing as advice, but that’s what he has to do. If he puts it together for 2 consecutive tournaments - something he did going 13-2 January ‘24 - then he’s a Yokozuna. Sounds simple, and he has shown he can do it. But will he? That’s why we watch.
Hoshoryu - O1W
On the other hand with Hoshoryu I think I have more concrete advice. His problem - to my amateur eyes of course - is that he just doesn’t dominate enough. Put another way: he lets far too many guys into matches that he shouldn’t.
Watching a dominant wrestler at the peak of his powers, you start to think he’ll win every match before it’s started. A lot of the times they’ll just blast guys out of the ring. When they’re taken to the brink - few times it may be - they can recover and turn that into a win, or at last avoid an embarrassingly quick and basic loss.
When I watch Hoshoryu I don’t get that feeling of dominance. I think he can beat anyone on any given day, however the opposite feels true to me too. He seems like he can throw away a match against a worse wrestler on any given day also. With the margin for error on a Yokozuna run I just don’t see his current level being enough. When there are guys at the top like Onosato, Kotozakura, and when healthy, Terunofuji, you cannot afford to throw away losses in week 1 cheaply.
If the above strikes you as overly pessimistic, I promise I still like his long term prospects. He’s generally healthy and still relatively young. Time is on his side, so hopefully this tournament he proves me wrong and starts dominating lower ranked wrestlers. But the good news is even if it’s not this tournament, he has plenty more to do that in too.
Onosato - O2E
Last but certainly not least. In fact, “last but most importantly” is a phrase I’ve never heard but would apply to Onosato here.
Onosato has put together a truly unbelievable resume in just a couple years of professional Sumo. I honestly don’t have too much to add here other than it will be interesting to see how he does after his Ozeki promotion. Anecdotally there seems to be a bit of a hangover effect from newly promoted Ozeki which makes sense as there is ceremony on top of the usual Sumo for those promotees. This is empirically born out as we discovered in my first piece on Ozeki Analytics in the graphic below:
If he can avoid the Ozeki hangover, then he should be in a great place. My one lingering doubt with Onosato was him reaching 13 wins in a tournament. After all, you need 13 wins twice in a row to hit the magic 26. Well last time around he showed he can easily reach 13 wins en route to Ozeki. As long as the health is there, it’s a matter of when, not if.
Potential Ozeki Preview
The main attraction here is Kirishima. He might even be on the third of three tournaments in an Ozeki run stealthily already. I’ll explain that below. But with that in mind we actually have more contenders than I thought.
Before I get ahead of myself, the Ozeki requirements can be a little less rigid than Yokozuna especially depending on the Ozeki roster. Right now we have 3 solid Ozeki so I expect when evaluating candidates they’ll stick to the general rule we’ve found which is 33 wins over 3 tournaments (Ozeki section here has more).
Kirishima S1E - 12-3 (September), 8-7 (July)
Technically speaking if Kirishima gets 13 wins this next tournament (a total he reached in the Kyushu Basho last year) then he would be on 33 wins over 3 tournaments below Ozeki.
One: I don’t think that’s likely, although it certainly looks more so after his terrific outing in September
Two: I don’t think they would count that first tournament (8-7) in July as being part of an Ozeki run. After all, had he won 10 then, he wouldn’t have to be fighting to regain his rank the hard way.
I really am rooting for him because if last tournament wasn’t a mirage then it really looks like he lost his spot due to some bad injury luck. I’ll put the number he should be shooting for as 10.5 wins. If he does that November and January it puts him at 33 wins for 3 tournaments. You might be saying, “how could he get a half a win?,” and I hear you and I think that means he should ambitiously shoot for 11 wins to make it even easier next time around only needing 10 wins in January. Best of luck to the once (and hopefully future) Ozeki.
Daieisho S1W - 8-7 (September)
Maybe one day I’ll figure out how to calculate the most underrated wrestlers. If I do come up with a decent way to rank based on that, I imagine Daieisho will be near the top of that list. He’s been steadily getting Kachikoshis and better from the Joi, and in particular the Sekiwake and Komosubi spots the past several years. Maybe this tournament he could go on the start of a run that’ll ensure he’s no longer so underestimated.
Wakamotoharu K1E - 11-4 (September) from M3
A late bloomer in sumo, Wakamotoharu arrived in the top division in his late 20’s, but has looked comfortable up here ever since. He went 11-4 last tournament which from the Maegashira 3 spot should be high enough to be included on an Ozeki run if he gets 22 wins over the next two tournaments.
It would be a really fun story if he did, because I believe based on my research he would be the oldest Makuuchi debutant to make Ozeki in the modern era. And by a couple years too!
Shodai K1W - 10-5 (September) from M4
The enigmatic Shodai is having himself a bit of a run right now. He actually has 20 wins over the past two tournaments. I only included the September record, as his July 10-5 came from Maegashira 10 and would be too low to be included in an Ozeki run. Still, the former Ozeki has demonstrated he still has some fights left to give. We’ll see how he does this time around being firmly in the Joi facing top wrestlers daily.
Oho M1E - 9-6 (September) from M2
I’m including him as I have a bit of a soft spot for him and he seems to finally be fulfilling some of his potential. Yokozuna Taiho’s grandson made his Makuuchi debut quite young in his early 20’s and seems to finally be putting it together. For reference, him and Hoshoryu came up around the same time, so who knows? Maybe these rivals can finally meet as peers at Ozeki sooner or later?
Wakatakakage M2E
If not for an injury last Spring, he might already be an Ozeki. Wakatakakage had looked that good with solid records to back it up. He’s finally back in the Joi and has looked good since his return. Can he complete his comeback story?
Last time around we had the gift wrapped narrative of whether Onosato would make Ozeki or not. We don’t have anyone on the final tournament of a Yokozuna or Ozeki run around this time, and yet the cast of characters might be more compelling. I’m excited to see how everyone does. Hopefully you enjoy this tournament and all the rikishi can stay safe and unharmed while continuing the excellent year of Sumo.