Who Will Be Next Yokozuna? Ranking the Contenders

And Future Yokozuna in general too!

I have wanted to write this article the last few Basho, but with turbulence around Ozeki it felt like things were too much in flux for me to have confidence providing a decent ranking of who the next Yokozuna will be. Well unfortunately with Takakeisho retired, and both our Ozeki (Hoshoryu + Kotozakura) coming off (weak) winning records and a new Ozeki in Onosato, we have a much cleaner picture of who might be the next Yokozuna. So today I’ll rank the contenders not only in order of who I consider most likely to be next Yokozuna but also in tiers of their odds. In fact, I include odds next to all of them that add up to 100% and the gambling odds that would be associated with that. I’m not taking bets, but I thought it could spice it up. I’ll start with a brief introduction of how to reach Yokozuna, then my thought process and finally after that it’ll be the contenders. Furthermore, I’ll also discuss future Yokozuna in general. So I include some guys who likely won’t be next Yokozuna, but do have a solid chance in their career. So let’s begin!

How to Reach Yokozuna

First requirement to reach Yokozuna: be an Ozeki. You have to be a current Ozeki to be promoted to Yokozuna.

The second requirement is to win at least 26 wins over 2 consecutive tournaments. This means you have to average 13 wins a tournament two tournaments in a row.

Finally, winning a Yusho in the second tournament of the run will help a lot.

If you want to read more in depth, there’s also this article where I looked at some commonalities. My conclusions then - and still the same now - are that they can be a bit flexible on the criteria when it comes to winning Yusho. I’ll expand on this further below.

Methodology and Thinking

Methodology might be a bit strong, but I would like to try and be up front with my thought process here. So here are some scattered thoughts that go into this process:

• As I said above, you have to win at least 13 matches on average for two consecutive tournaments to reach Yokozuna. If I see a wrestler has won 13 matches in a tournament before then they get a big boost in my mind. Even if it’s Juryo, I do think that having that kind of concentration to win so consistently is, if not a skill, something that you have to have.

• With the above data point, I tend to gravitate towards guys that “make it look easy” for lack of a better word. Here’s a great excuse to post some Akebono highlights; look at how dominant he is in some of those wins! Obviously you can’t blow out guys every match¹, but if you’re able to make it look easy that’s less wear and tear and more room for error. Again, my opinion and a bit hard to quantify.

• When I consider the overall odds of someone being a future Yokozuna, I reward youth heavily. Becoming Yokozuna is unlikely, as is getting 13 wins in a Basho. The more times you roll the dice, the greater the odds you hit the snake eyes.

• Promotion attitudes change over time and are also circumstantial. After Futahaguro’s retirement, they were much stricter with the standards they applied to would-be Yokozuna. However, I think that at the present they will likely be less strict now. Terunofuji is a great Yokozuna, but he only shows up every other tournament if that as of late. As such, I think that if someone is on the cusp, they might be more willing to promote nowadays.

• There is favoritism. It is what it is, but I do think that if someone that is Japanese and generally seen favorably by the Sumo elders they will get scrutinized less than a Mongolian. I think this will help Kotozakura and Onosato both even if it is marginal, and luckily I do think we’re in a better place now than in the 90’s for instance fortunately.

Tier 1 - The Favorite

Onosato, O2E (60% or -150)

Who else could it be? If I was writing this before the Aki Basho, I would have a minor hesitancy to put him up top: Onosato had never won 13 matches in a Basho and was not an Ozeki. But now he has shown he can win 13+ in a tournament, and is at Ozeki; this is just really easy to handicap. Onosato can do it all: he has size, he has great pushing sumo, he’s skilled and comfortable on the belt, and he seems to be in control out on the clay. With Terunofuji in the twilight of his career, so long as he stays healthy, Onosato is the man to beat.

Tier 2 - Ozeki

Kotozakura, O1E (15% or +567)

I imagine most people would have the same top two as I do. Not so fun fact: Kotozakura has yet to win a Makuuchi Yusho. Even still, Kotozakura is also like Onosato where he’s a guy with seemingly no weaknesses. In fact, he has more size and power in my estimation. He went 8-7 in Aki, which might have some folks down on him, but in May he went 11-4 and January 13-2. In fact, he’s been excellent the past year.

I consider Onosato so long as he’s healthy to be as close to a lock as there is to make Yokozuna sooner or later. I would not go that far for Kotozakura, but he looks like he’s set up to be a high performing Ozeki for a while and he’s still only 26. Another way to think about his odds of becoming a Yokozuna is that he probably has ~3-5 years more of being an Ozeki. That is an assumption, but I don’t think it’s too generous of one, health permitting. He’s a guy that even at his worst in a while this Basho eked out a Kachikoshi. That’s 18-30 Basho.

We saw with Takakeisho that even as he was injured particularly towards the end of his sumo career he still managed to get close to Yokozuna a few times. All you need is to stay at Ozeki and have a couple good tournaments in a row. Easier said than done, but the more opportunities, the greater your odds.

Kirishima, S1E (10% or +900)

Here is where I make my first (potentially) surprising pick. I do consider Kirishima to be moderately more likely than Hoshoryu to make Yokozuna first. That said, I do consider Hoshoryu more likely to make Yokozuna at some point in the future than Kirishima. Hopefully the next few paragraphs make this all make sense (if it doesn’t already).

If Kirishima were still an Ozeki, I don’t think this ordering would be controversial. In fact, I think if he were still Ozeki, it might make sense to have him in front of even Kotozakura. One big reason is that Kirishima in November of ‘23 won a Yusho with 13 wins from the Ozeki rank. No other wrestler in contention for Yokozuna can say they’ve won a Yusho from the Ozeki rank with 13+ wins. It’s a bit reductive but I do emphasize having been there before, or demonstrating the capability to do something. We know that Kirishima can do it, he just needs to do it again and twice in a row. It’s hard, but that goes for all these wrestlers.

The elephant in the room is that he is currently a former Ozeki. My research in Sumo has shown me that generally speaking the most recent performances are the most important². If I had written this before the Aki Basho I likely would have these positions reversed, but Kirishima showed not only is the injury no longer affecting him like before; now he is back to the kind of Sumo that got him to Ozeki and could propel him higher.

The flip side is, the clock is ticking for Kirishima. At ~28.5 years old and coming off an injury that affected him so much that he lost his Ozeki status, there is only so many Basho left in his prime. Furthermore, he still needs at least 1, probably 2 more ~10+ win Basho to regain Ozeki. As always, this is a numbers game, and having so many fewer bites at the apple in his prime, I do think Hoshoryu has a higher chance of becoming an Yokozuna overall than Kirishima. Just not in the next year or so.

Hoshoryu, O1W (7% or +1329)

I’m going to compare Hoshoryu to two wrestlers that he reminds me of a little bit, and in a sense might be damning him with praise. Hoshoryu reminds me a bit of Harumafuji in that he’s a wrestler with a tremendous technical game and solid height but a slighter build. Hoshoryu also reminds me a bit of Kisenosato in that he’s a wrestler that reached the Joi relatively young, stuck around, made Ozeki, and then was around at Ozeki for a while. That last point is a bit of a projection, but Hoshoryu doesn’t look to be in danger of a rope run in my eyes in the near future.

The problem for Hoshoryu is that unlike Harumafuji he has not had Zensho Yushos in the top division. He hasn’t even reached the 13-2 record that Kisenosato made so frequently from Ozeki³. Still, in the skillset and the career trajectory respectively I do see some of those Yokozuna reflected in Hoshoryu.

The reason he isn’t higher is simple: he lacks the consistency and dominance of those men. I can see Hoshoryu beating any wrestler on any given day, but the problem is that I can also see most wrestlers beating Hoshoryu on any given day too. At 25 years old he has plenty of time left to put it together and reach the top. That’s why I do consider him more likely to make Yokozuna than Kirishima with his fewer opportunities. Hopefully one day we can look back and point to Hatsu 2025 or some other Basho and say that was when he finally added that consistency to his game and then was able to make Yokozuna.

The Field (of Potential Future Yokozuna)

We have some tremendous prospects in Sumo right now including some guys that I consider to have relatively high odds to make Yokozuna as crazy as that sounds. That said, almost all of these guys - even the top prospect - would be a year+ out from having a realistic shot at a rope run. Given

Takerufuji - Lower Makuuchi or Upper Juryo (3% or +3233)

Takerufuji looks to be back. He might literally be back in Makuuchi in November, but if not he’ll be close. However, I mean he’s back in the sense that he went 13-2 last time around in Juryo. He’s also gone 13-2 in Makuuchi to win a Yusho. That’s a Yokozuna performance albeit from Maegashira 17. It’ll (presumably) be a bit tougher for him to be so dominating facing the Joi for 15 straight days, but like Onosato, health seems like the only thing that could stop his rise to the top. It is fun to think where he would be if he hadn’t injured himself en route to his first top division Yusho. Maybe this exercise would be considerably harder if so!

The Field ex Takerufuji (Collective 5% or +1900)

Please note that this is meant to symbolize the collective probability that anyone other than the listed wrestlers above is the next Yokozuna. I think it’s unlikely, but also definitely possible. From here on out I’m focused more on guys that are potential future Yokozuna in general, rather than likely to be the next Yokozuna. Realistically, it’s one guy I believe in as a future Yokozuna and then two heat checks, in that order. So to be clear, these are 3 guys I think of for the future, rather than as guys who might be next Yokozuna.

A final methodology note: one thing I emphasize an incredible amount when judging prospects is that they reach milestones in the Banzuke at a young age. If you’re 18-19 in Makushita, 20-21 in Juryo, reach Makuuchi at 22 or younger then you’ll be on my radar. My research shows that wrestlers reach their peak at about ~27, so if you’re in the top division in your early 20’s, that’s multiple years of potential skill growth while you’ve already demonstrated you can reach Makuuchi. Development won’t necessarily continue linearly upwards for wrestlers, but as always, this is a numbers focused blog and more rolls of the dice will increase your odds.

Atamifuji - 22 years old, Joi

I often include him in my potential Ozeki and Yokozuna previews because as someone who has stuck at the Joi despite just turning 22 that’s the kind of peers he has: former Ozeki and Yokozuna. Atamifuji has tremendous size, and has been able to maintain his presence in the upper ranks despite the top of the Banzuke looking as strong as it has in a while. It seems to me crazy to think that he has peaked at 22 years old, so if that extra level of Sumo is finally unlocked by him, we could see Atamifuji competing for the top two ranks sooner or later.

Aonishiki - 20 years old, Lower Juryo

As I said, this one is a heat check. What else could it be when we’re talking about a wrestler who has yet to register a Juryo bout yet. Even still, if you want to bet on someone, it’s a good idea to bet on a wrestler with more Bashos (7) than Losses (4). Anecdotally, the mid Makushita and upper Makushita are both common stumbling blocks for even top prospects. Aonishiki is still just 20 years old and he blasted through them. Maybe he finally is challenged in Juryo, but it hasn’t happened yet and a strong Sekitori (paid ranks in the top two divisions) debut could have my sky high estimation of him rise even further. I had my doubts the last two Basho if he could maintain that dominance but he proved me wrong both times and that’s why he’s getting a shout out. Best of luck to the Ukrainian!

Oho - 24 years old, Joi

I don’t know what’s more extreme than a heat check, but I do realize this might be crazier/more unpopular than Aonishiki above. Even so, Oho made his Makuuchi debut young, and looks to finally be ready to be a Joi stalwart. This pick is because of that youth and his recent ‘breakout’ much more so than him being the grandson of Taiho. You’d have to give me some pretty crazy odds (+2000 or sub 5% at least) to get me to put money on him making Yokozuna, but I wanted to listen to my gut and get this one out here.

So that’s it folks. As a bit of a preview, it’s not there yet, but when I have my Elo updated and have done more work with the talent bands we went over recently, I hope to eventually try and fine tune match prediction and match making. Once we have that we can start to do some fun stuff like run Monte Carlo simulations. It won’t be perfect, but it will be cool to have 10,000 runs of the Banzuke or multiple and see how those odds stack up to the ones I put here above. Thanks for reading and I’ll try to be more consistent going forwards. Have a good one!

1. Except Hakuho

2. In fact, this autocorrelation (the name for the phenomenon when results are strongly correlated to the prior results) occurs not infrequently in our world.

3. I know he didn’t have a Yusho but it does feel a bit harsh that Kisenosato went 13-2 twice in a row from Ozeki in 2016 with two Jun-Yusho and got a Yokozuna snub. Not to mention he’s Japanese too! Goes to show that such favoritism is circumstantial and marginal, if it does indeed exist