Haru 2024 - Potential Yokozuna and Ozeki Preview

Hatsu 2024 was a great tournament! The top men did their ranks proud, young guns made an impact, and a Yokozuna (and statistically becoming one of the top ones ever) took home the Emperor’s cup. Additionally, we came out of the tournament with another Ozeki.

Last time around I did a tournament preview only the potential Ozeki were featured as the research I had done then was more focused on Ozeki. This time around, I have some good data for the Yokozuna too and will include how I’m viewing them in light of that. With each of these pieces in previewing the tournament, I’ll look at if any of the Ozeki may be on a Yokozuna run, and then the same for Sekiwake and below that who may be on Ozeki runs. I’ll also try to maybe highlight some guys or any fun facts if I have them. Feel free to just hone in on or ctrl-f for your guys, and if you have any suggestions on the format, also please let me know. Thanks for joining me so far, and hopefully we can have many more great tournaments and good data and writing on them.

The Banzuke can be found here and I may look to get an image up for it too: https://sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoBanzuke/index/

Yokozuna Watch

To keep things relatively short, only Kirishima has any chance of a promotion following this tournament, and that’s only if he can go 14-1 or 15-0 with a Yusho to boot.

Kirishima O1E - (11-4) Last Tournament

Even then, only the Zensho gets him to the magic 26 wins over two tournaments. 26 is usually the required amount to get promoted to Yokozuna (that and more about Yokozuna promotion here). I think more likely, he’d hope to get 13 or more wins, and then he could shoot for the rope run in Natsu in May. That basically applies the same to the other Ozeki, so I won’t repeat it.

Hoshoryu O1W - (10-4-1) Last Tournament

I think the big priority for him will be to get back in good health. With his youth, I think the way he maximizes his Yokozuna chances, is to make sure he’s at 100% going forwards. He’s almost a guaranteed Kachikoshi (winning record) whenever he’s healthy - his last Makekoshi at 7-8 was November 2021. I had a piece about him last week that goes into his Yokozuna chances deeper (there’s also numbers and tables too), but a fact that stuck out to me is he’s not won 13 wins in a single tournament yet in his career. Will he get over that hump this Basho?

Takakeisho O2E - (2-2-11) Last Tournament

It’s a bummer writing about him lately. Hopefully he can get well. I’m a big fan of his and I think he’s more than established his place in the ranks of sumo greats already. Hopefully he can get at least a Kachikoshi and/or get healthy this Basho.

Kotonowaka O2W - (13-2) Jun-Yusho Last Tournament

Big congratulations! He’s a worthy Ozeki. 3 men - Kitanoumi, Chiyonofuji, and Asashoryu - took only 3 tournaments to reach Yokozuna. I’m not predicting Kotonowaka will manage that, but he did look great last tournament and has had some great form. I wrote up his career too which is here.

Ozeki Watch

Long story short, there isn’t anyone looking like they’re on the final leg of a 3 tournament Ozeki run. Still, there are some guys that might be on the first tournament of an Ozeki run like Daieisho and Wakamotoharu. As a general rule, about as low as you can be and have that tournament eligible for an Ozeki run is upper Maegashira, i.e. 1-3. Similarly, only Sekiwake have ever been promoted to Ozeki. If you’re interested in more on this, win totals, etc. I go over that in this piece. It guides my thinking on this topic.

Daieisho S1E - (9-6)

Coming off consecutive 9-6 solid Bashos, something truly special would have to happen for him to even be considered for Ozeki. More likely? He’s hoping to get in the 10-11 win range and then he could have a credible Ozeki run in May. He has been on a good run all 2023, but he just hasn’t been able to reach the same level as the new Ozeki like Kirishima, Hoshoryu, and Kotonowaka. Still, if he stays healthy, he’s producing good sumo and remains a threat to reach Ozeki.

Wakamotoharu S1W - (10-5) Shukun-sho

Kyushu Basho, Nov ‘23 (6-9)

With his 10-5, Wakamotoharu is in a good place. I included his prior 6-9 to show he isn’t on the final of 3 tournaments Ozeki run, but he actually has been pretty consistent outside that tournament in the Joi. Just like Daieisho, he’s a guy that has shown an ability to do great at the top, but it’s just there are already good consistent Ozeki right now, and so it gets that much harder to reach that level as a result.

Asanoyama M1W - (9-3-3)

Starting at Maegashira 7W, Asanoyama continued to show his quality when he’s able to participate in sumo. When he’s able to stay healthy, he makes his way upward, and maybe this tournament he can continue his way back to Ozeki. On the other hand, he faces a top of the division that looks very different from when he was an Ozeki himself.

Atamifuji M2E - (6-9)

Other than Daieisho, he didn’t beat any wrestler higher ranked than him. Still, Atamifuji did very well against the mid rankers. Fun fact: from July ‘23-Nov he went 11-4 three tournaments consecutively - 2 of those in Makuuchi. Before that 11-4 Juryo tournament in July? 13-2 Juryo E8. He looks like he might not be quite ready for the Joi yet, but you feel sooner or later he will be. He feels inevitable.

Oho M3E - (10-5)

Oho has had consecutive Kachikoshi and been in the Makuuchi since May of 2022. At just barely 24 years old as of February, he still has potential. I think if he’s able to Kachikoshi here, that’ll be a nice step forwards. That said, he’s in a strong Joi.

Onosato M5W - (11-4) Kanto-sho

We are in a great era of sumo with some truly blue chip prospects, and Onosato is one of the top for now. He looks like the real deal, I really doubt he’s on an Ozeki run, but I’m also incredibly excited to see how he handles facing even higher competition now. At Maegashira 5W he shouldn’t face the full Joi, so it’ll be interesting to see how he does in the mid-ranks. He fought a Sekiwake - Kotonowaka , Ozeki - Hoshoryu, and Yokozuna Terunofuji, but other than those 3, the highest competition he faced was Meisei at M9W. This should be relatively new territory for him in competition even if it isn’t Sanyaku daily.

Hokuseiho Retired - (2-4-9)

It’s unfortunate to write about him. He was a young man showing he deserved to stay in the Makuuchi. But he also was shown to be a bully, and this scandal over him bullying others is a stain on sumo, and his oyakata, former Hakuho. The only bright side is that this has come to light and there have been consequences. I’m a huge fan of sumo, and the culture surrounding it, but it’s also important that unacceptable behavior is stamped out of the sport and that people give others the respect they deserve. You can only hope everyone grows from this.

That’s it folks. Thanks for reading if you made it this far. I really appreciate all the people subscribing. I really do think it’s a community and I have had fun sharing this with you all.