Ozeki Analytic's Interesting Guys in Sumo - Non Current Yokozuna + Ozeki Candidates
A New Feature We'll See Is Worth Keeping Or Not
Hopefully you’ve enjoyed the last several posts where we’ve had the opportunity to explore what the Banzuke ought to look like using an algorithmic approach to generating the tournament rankings. I look to have some exciting new research in the next couple weeks too on seeing if we can (or cannot) reliably forecast when wrestlers will retire using some publicly available data (age, record recently, if they’ve gone down a division recently, etc.). However, that is pretty research and code intensive so as I do take my weekly posts seriously, I thought I would try a new format for this week and see if it works.
Who are some guys in sumo that interest me?
I spend a lot of time looking at sumo records, and in particular a focus of mine is who will be at the top (Yokozuna and Ozeki) one day. In fact, those were some of my first posts and I linked them respectively. Well what I did was go through the entire Banzuke, looking at who is predicted a big move up the ranks, who did well while at a career high, who won their division’s Yusho, and just guys who have stuck around with me for whatever reason (being a non-Mongolian non-Japanese will catch my attention, for instance) and then put them in a list here and put a brief on why I think they’re interesting and you should follow them with interest (check their SumoDB at tournament end) too.
This covers guys that aren’t in striking distance of Ozeki and Yokozuna, so if you want to see Onosato and Takerufuji, then hold off a week or two for when I have the Ozeki and Yokozuna preview up for Natsu. If this is enjoyable, I’ll look to do it going forwards. If not? Well, I guess you won’t have to worry about me continuing this. So hopefully you enjoy!
Lower Maegashira - Upper Juryo
Tokihayate Hideki - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12542
Was: J2W - Predicted: M15E
He’s older, but hasn’t had a losing record since his latest promotion to Juryo last September. All but guaranteed to make his Makuuchi debut, will be interesting to see if he can stick as some later bloomers have like Tobizaru has managed to (succeed is more apt for him), who also made his top level debut at ~27.
Asakoryu Takuma - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12710
Was: J8E - Predicted: J5W
His third straight tournament with a winning record sees Asakoryu in the mid to upper Juryo. Another tournament or two more like his 9-6 in March and he’ll be knocking on the door of Makuuchi
Shishi Masaru - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12599
Was: J8W - Predicted: J6W
The Ukrainian(!) has looked like he belongs in Juryo, but let’s see if he can have another winning tournament and put himself in the same situation as Asakoryu above
Lower Juryo - Upper Makushita
Onokatsu Kazuhiro - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12840 - One to Watch
Was: Ms2W - Predicted: J12W
A rocket up the Banzuke, the Mongolian debuted at Ms15 just last November and is (likely) already in Juryo. He hasn’t been challenged yet, but we’ll see if the move to 15 straight days of competition is too much for him. With good size and just 23 years of age, my guess is even if it is too much this tournament, it won’t be long before he’s making his way up Juryo too.
Yoshii Ko - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12536
Was: Ms22W - Predicted: J13W
Only 20 years old but with 30 Basho under his belt, I think if he ends up in Juryo, it’ll probably be a bit too much for him a bit too soon. Still, perhaps it could be a good learning experience.
Kazekeno Kenta - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12767
Was: Ms13W - Predicted: J14W
Although a bit older at 24 than Yoshii, above, here’s another guy who I think might not be quite ready for the Juryo. Still, he’s made his way up the Banzuke fairly quickly reaching upper Makushita/lower Juryo from a Jonokuchi debut in just 2 full years. Looks like a potential future Juryo mainstay if not Makuuchi wrestler.
Daiseizan Daisuke - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12725
Was: Ms13E - Predicted: Ms1E
Shout out to Chinese wrestler (from Inner Mongolia, the province, even the Chinese wrestlers are Mongolian! haha). He went 6-1 in March against top Makushita guys and probably will end up facing guys ranked in the high single digits (Ms1-5) vs guys in the low teens (Ms 10-20) as he did last tournament, if he doesn’t make Juryo. If he dominates again, I think he’ll be more than ready for Juryo.
Nagamura Akihiro - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12795
Was: Sd3W - Predicted: Ms5W
At just 19 but going 7-0 at Sandanme 3 West, I think Nagamura will likely be able to stick in Makushita this time unlike in January. I also think that the algorithm is overrating how high he’ll rank and it’ll be more mid Makushita. Would be a good test for him to be mid Makushita ~30-40 and see how he does this time around. Still, at 19 he has plenty of time.
Haruyama Mantaro - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12832
Was: Ms17W - Predicted: Ms7E
Another college wrestler, Haruyama hasn’t been challenged too hard yet. I’m guessing the upper Makushita won’t be enough either, but here’s another guy who looks poised to continue rocketing up the ranks now just a little over a year into his pro career.
Mid Makushita (and below)
Anosho Yamato - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12834
Was: Ms48E - Predicted: Ms31W
A young 19 and sticking in the Makushita isn’t a bad place to be. Unless he has a disastrous injury or somehow goes 1-6 or 0-7 (I doubt it) - then he’s doing exactly what he needs to. I like that he went 4-3 in his Makushita debut, then moved to 5-2 in March despite a harder schedule. That’s a good way to get my attention.
Aonishiki Arata - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12839
Was: Sd18E - Predicted: Ms32W
The other Ukrainian (how crazy is that?!) this one might be the better prospect somehow. Just 20 years old and with only 1 professional loss, he’s one of those guys that seemingly hasn’t come close to being tested yet. We’ll see if the mid Makushita is where he gets his first challenge. Hard to root against. He has good height but not much mass (yet).
Matsui Kanato - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12876
Was: Ms60TD - Predicted: Ms47W
Just 19 years old and debuting in Makushita ain’t bad either. He mostly faced upper Sandanme guys, but you can only beat who is in front of you, and he beat 5/7 of those guys. Also a smaller guy stature and weight wise.
Rinko Yoshikazu - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12758
Was: Sd14E - Predicted: Ms48W
If you’re on my radar in these lower ranks, then you probably have to be younger, and Rinko is our youngest thus far and will be 17 for this entire tournament! Hitting Makushita in time for his 18th birthday would be a great achievement, so I’ll keep my eyes on him.
Kanazawa Hidetoshi - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12739
Was: Sd31W - Predicted: Sd7E
Another good tournament and he’ll likely be in Makushita just after his 21st birthday in June.
Kamitani Genki - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12461
Was: Sd49W - Predicted: Sd8e
Despite being 21, has already been in 36 Basho, and he has won a Yusho in Sandanme before. If you’re somehow able to bet on Sandanme Yusho, this guy would be a solid one, because he' seems like he’s just too good for it now.
Ryuji Yasumasa - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12828
Was: Jd2W - Predicted: Sd38E
If you want my attention from Jonidan, be 19 years old, have great stature, be clearly too good for the division, and be making your Sandanme debut. That’s who Ryuji is/will be, and I’ll be excited to see how he handles that division.
Tokitenran - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12879
Was: Sd90TD - Predicted: Sd43W
As a college wrestler, he dominated in his pro debut going 6-1, and if you didn’t lay money on Kamitani, Tokitenran might be an even better bet for the Sandanme Yusho1
Hayashiryu Ryu - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12757
Was: Jd16W - Predicted: Sd49W
We’ll see if third time is the charm in Sandanme for Hayashiryu. Still 17 and coming off 6-1 in upper Jonidan, I’m guessing the answer is “yes.” Still, he has so much time on his side.
Inami Koki - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12851
Was: Jk8E - Predicted: Jd58W
College wrestler who has terrific size. He should be rocketing up the ranks for a while if he has any skill to back that heft up.
Onozawa Ayato - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12849
Was: Jk8W - Predicted: Jd73W
18 year old who did well in Jonokuchi. Will be interesting to see how he does in Jonidan.
Final Notes
I actually looked through my biggest movers in terms of rank after I had made my selections and naturally a lot of guys I chose were the people having the biggest jumps up the ranks. This isn’t supposed to be scientific or anything - it’s guys that interested me - but it also is nice it correlates alright with who is expected to have a big jump. Additionally, I did not include the guys who had big moves because they were coming back from injury - so your Tochimaru, Ryuo, and Chiyooga who are all older, coming back from injuries, and below their ‘expected’ rank.
Also, related to last week’s post; my acerbic twitter friend did a bit of a code question for folks to answer last week. Check it out here, and see the best answer that was submitted in the quote tweets. Hopefully the attached explains it well, but think of how you’d code up the 6 divisions, alternating between Maegashira 1 E, then Maegashira 1 W all the way down to Jonokuchi. I went a rather inefficient route that I knew would work but if you’re interested in code, might be worth thinking about/checking out.
seriously though if you know some legal way I could bet on sumo that’d be great lol
Asakoryu is a really fascinating prospect. Not sure how well he'll do, but I'd love to see him take on makuuchi level rikishi.